Correlation vs. Causation: Many studies show that people who exercise regularly live longer. Does this evidence establish causation, or are there other factors at play? What distinction would you make between correlation and causation in this case?, Faulty Reasoning: An advertisement claims "90% of users saw results in one week." What faulty reasoning might consumers engage in when they see this claim? What additional information would be sufficient to evaluate it properly?, False Dichotomy: Some people argue there is a dichotomy between individual responsibility and government action in addressing climate change. Is this a false dichotomy? Why or why not?, Temporal Sequence: The article states explicitly that Company X's revenue increased after launching a new marketing campaign. Does the temporal sequence of these events establish causation? What other explanations exist?, At the Heart of the Debate: What is at the heart of the disagreement between these two positions? Does one argument rely on faulty reasoning more than the other?, Postponing Judgment: Before you draw a distinction between these two concepts, why is it important to postpone making a final judgment? What evidence would be sufficient to help you decide?, Inevitable Consequences: The text argues that ignoring this problem will inevitably lead to three consequences. Do you agree? Are there ways to prevent these outcomes?, A nutritionist with 20 years of experience claims that a new diet can cure most chronic diseases. What should you consider before accepting this claim? What might be happening here?, After implementing a new homework policy, test scores increased. A month later, a student points out: "But students also started a new tutoring program at the same time." Why is this observation important? What does it challenge?, "Everyone in my country believes X, so X must be true." Is this reasoning valid in any circumstance? When might it be misleading? Give an example where the majority was wrong., A politician says: "My opponent doesn't care about families," when the opponent actually proposed a different approach to family policy. What just happened? Why is this strategy effective?, Your friend argues: "If we let people work from home one day a week, eventually nobody will come to the office, the company will collapse, and we'll all lose our jobs." Is this necessarily true? What's missing from this chain of reasoning?, Two researchers study the same data and reach opposite conclusions. One says: "I have a PhD, so my interpretation is correct." Is this enough? What would actually settle the disagreement?, A company's sales increased after they hired a new marketing manager. The CEO credits the manager. But the economy also improved that year, and a competitor went out of business. Can we actually establish causation here? What would you need to know?, Someone says: "You're only against this policy because you're young and don't understand how the real world works." Are they addressing the policy or the person? Does the person's age matter to the validity of their argument?, In a meeting about reducing plastic waste, someone says: "Well, did you know that China produces more plastic than we do?" Is this relevant to what your company should do? Why might someone bring this up?, A parent tells a child: "Everyone else's parents let them stay up late, so you should too." What's wrong with this reasoning? Could it ever be valid?, You read: "Studies show that people who drink coffee live longer." Does this mean coffee causes longevity? What distinction should you make? What other explanations exist?, Someone argues: "Either you support this environmental policy completely, or you want the planet to die." Can you think of middle positions? Why are such absolute statements often persuasive despite being inaccurate?, A famous athlete says a particular smartphone is the best. A tech reviewer who isn't famous gives detailed specifications and comparisons. Whose opinion matters more and why? Is your answer about expertise or popularity?, A student says: "I failed the test because the teacher doesn't explain things well." Another says: "I failed because I didn't study." A third says: "I failed because I was tired that day." Can all three statements be true simultaneously? What's the difference between identifying a cause and identifying the cause?, In a political debate, Person A proposes: "We should increase investment in public transportation." Person B responds: "So my opponent wants to take away people's cars?" Is Person B representing the argument fairly? What's actually being proposed?, Someone claims: "Three of my friends got sick after eating at Restaurant X, so that restaurant's food is dangerous." What's the actual sample size? What else could explain the illness? How many cases would be sufficient to establish a real problem?, A company advertises: "Join millions of satisfied customers!" Does the number of customers tell you if the product is good? What information is actually missing?, A news article reports: "Since the new school principal arrived, vandalism has decreased." The principal claims credit. But the school also installed new cameras, and police increased patrols. Can you make a distinction between the principal's impact and other factors?, "Statistics show that people who exercise regularly are healthier." Someone concludes: "Exercise causes health." Is this necessarily true? What temporal sequence are we assuming? What other explanations exist?, Two people disagree about a historical event. Person A says: "My grandfather lived through it, so he knows better than historians." Person B says: "Historians have studied the documents, so they know better than one person's memory." Who has a stronger position? What matters?, A proposal suggests: "Let's reduce class sizes to improve learning." An opponent argues: "My colleague has a huge class and her students do well, so class size doesn't matter." Is one example enough to disprove a general claim? What would be sufficient evidence?, Someone says: "If we let teenagers make any decisions for themselves, they'll have no rules, become criminals, and ruin society." Is each step inevitable? What's the actual range of possibilities?, You hear: "Nobody intelligent agrees with this position." Does the intelligence of a position's supporters determine its truth? Can a smart person be wrong? Can an unintelligent person stumble onto the truth?, A company's revenue declined. The CEO resigned. A new CEO was hired and revenue increased. Did the CEO change cause the improvement? What else might matter? How long would you need to wait to establish causation?, In a debate about university costs, Person A says: "Education is expensive." Person B responds: "Well, my friend got a full scholarship!" Is Person B addressing the general claim about costs? What's the problem with this response?, Someone argues: "Most successful people went to elite universities, so you should too." Is this reasoning sufficient? What distinction should you make between correlation and what causes success?, A politician says: "My opponent took money from controversial donors, so their policy ideas are wrong." Are the sources of funding the same as the quality of the ideas? Should they be separate questions?, A student gets one bad grade and thinks: "I'm bad at this subject and always will be." Is this conclusion based on sufficient evidence? What's the problem with making this generalization?, "A doctor recommended this supplement." "What kind of doctor? A sports medicine specialist? A neuroscientist? A nutritionist?" Why do these details matter? Is all expertise equal?, You see an advertisement: "This shampoo is used by celebrities!" Does celebrity use tell you anything about the product's quality? What's actually being implied?, After implementing stricter rules, behavior improved. But a new student teacher who is very popular also started at the same time. How do you figure out which actually made the difference? What would you need to observe?, Someone claims: "If we change anything about school, it will inevitably get worse." Is "different" the same as "worse"? What's the pattern in this thinking?, A company's stock price fell the day after announcing new environmental regulations. Someone says: "See? Environmental regulations harm the economy!" Is one day's stock price sufficient evidence? What else might explain the movement?, In a discussion about education policy, someone says: "Well, let me tell you about my sister's experience with homeschooling..." Is a personal anecdote a good basis for general policy? When does personal experience matter, and when doesn't it?, Person A argues: "We should study climate science more carefully before making expensive changes." Person B responds: "So you want to ignore the climate crisis?" Did Person B accurately represent the argument? What's the difference between asking for evidence and ignoring a problem?, You read: "Since implementing this program, crime has decreased." What questions should you ask? How many other variables changed in that time period? What would establish causation convincingly?, Someone says: "Everyone who succeeded did X, so you must do X to succeed." Is X necessary? Sufficient? Or just common? Give an example where this reasoning fails., A famous scientist says a particular nutrition claim is false. An equally famous celebrity says it's true. Should you automatically believe the scientist? What expertise does each have? What evidence matters most?, A proposal to reduce work hours is dismissed because "the person who suggested it is lazy." Does the proposer's character affect whether the idea has merit? Can a lazy person have a good idea?, "If we allow this small change, it will inevitably lead to total chaos." Is there genuinely a straight line from point A to complete breakdown? Or are there many possible outcomes? What evidence would show each outcome is actually inevitable?, A teacher says: "Students today don't read like they used to." When you ask "How do you know?" the answer is "Everyone knows that." Is this sufficient evidence? What would you actually need to measure?, Two studies show opposite results about a medication. One was funded by the company that makes the medication; one was independent. Should funding matter in how much you trust the result? Does it prove the funded study is wrong?, A parent argues: "If we let kids have a say in one household decision, they'll think they run the house and become disrespectful." Is this chain of cause and effect guaranteed? What other outcomes are possible?, Someone dismisses a climate scientist's argument by saying: "But she drives a car, so she doesn't really care about the environment." Does living in modern society mean you can't advocate for environmental change? Are these related?, A company's productivity increased after implementing flexible scheduling. But they also hired 50 new employees and upgraded their software. Can you credit the scheduling change alone? What's the problem with doing so?, "Studies show that social media users are less happy." A teenager responds: "I use social media and I'm happy!" Does one counterexample disprove the general trend? What's the difference between what studies show and individual experience?, A politician says: "We can either keep things exactly as they are or accept complete radical change—there's nothing in between." Can you think of other options? Why present choices this way?, You hear: "That expert is wrong because they're from [country/region/group]." Are they addressing the expert's evidence or the expert's identity? When does background actually matter?, A school implemented new teaching methods and student engagement improved. But the teachers who volunteered for the program were also more enthusiastic. Can you separate the effect of the method from the effect of teacher enthusiasm? How?, Someone argues: "If we spend money on education, we won't have money for healthcare. We have to choose one." Is this actually true? Can governments pursue multiple priorities? What's being oversimplified here?, "Most people believe this is true." "Does that make it true?" What's the relationship between popularity and truth? Can you give an example where the majority was factually wrong?, A successful person says: "I didn't have help from anyone—I did it all myself." Should you believe this completely? What role might luck, privilege, or invisible support play? Is personal narrative always reliable?, A scientist publishes a study. A non-scientist with a large social media following says the study is wrong. Should follower count matter? What matters instead?, "If we don't ban this immediately, it will inevitably destroy society." Is "don't act now" the same as "accept destruction"? Are these the only options?, A doctor recommends a treatment. Another doctor recommends something different. Both have credentials. How do you decide? What would be sufficient evidence? Does having more credentials guarantee being right?, Someone says: "Young people today are lazy because I saw a teenager sitting around." Is this sufficient evidence for a generalization about an entire generation? What sample size would you actually need?, A proposal fails, and someone says: "See, that's why we shouldn't change anything." But maybe the proposal failed for fixable reasons. How do you distinguish between "the idea was bad" and "the implementation was bad"?, After a school hires a new counselor, student mental health improves. Did the counselor cause the improvement? What else changed? How long should you observe before claiming causation?, "If we allow people to work flexible hours, nobody will work, and the company will collapse." Is this inevitably true? What's the actual range of outcomes?, A student argues: "My point is valid because it's what I believe." Does belief determine truth? Can you believe something false? Can you disbelieve something true?, Can an argument be logically sound but factually wrong? Give an example and explain., If someone uses faulty reasoning but reaches a true conclusion, was the argument successful? Should it be?, Which fallacy do you commit most often in your own thinking? How would you recognize it?, Is it possible for a fallacy to be persuasive because it's a fallacy? Why might we be drawn to flawed reasoning?, In what situations might it be more valuable to understand why someone's argument is flawed than to prove them wrong?

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