Since 1945 the world economy has run according to a system of rules and norms ____ by America. This brought about ____ economic integration that ____ growth, lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and helped the West ____ over Soviet Russia in the cold war. Today the system is in ____. Countries are racing to subsidise green industry, ____ manufacturing ____ from friend and ____ alike and restrict the flow of goods and capital. Mutual benefit is out and national ____ is in. An era of zero-sum thinking has begun. The old system was already under ____, as America’s interest in maintaining it ____ after the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But President Joe Biden’s ____ of free-market rules for an aggressive industrial policy has dealt it a fresh ____. America has ____ vast subsidies, ____ to $465bn, for green energy, electric cars and semiconductors. These are ____ ____ requirements that production should be local. Bureaucrats tasked with ____ ____ investments to prevent ____ foreign influence over the economy now themselves hold ____ ____ sectors making up 60% of the stockmarket. And officials are ____ the flow of ever more exports—____ of high-____ chips and chipmaking equipment to China. For many in Washington, ____ industrial policy holds a ____ appeal. It could help seal America’s technological over China, which has long ____ self-sufficiency in ____ areas using state intervention. As carbon pricing is politically ____, it could foster decarbonisation. And it reflects a hope that government intervention might succeed where private enterprise failed, and reindustrialise America’s ____. The immediate ____, however, has been to ____ ____ a dangerous spiral into ____ worldwide. Build a chipmaking plant in India and the government will ____ up half the cost; build one in South Korea and you can ____ yourself of generous tax breaks. Should seven other market economies that have announced policies for “strategic” sectors since 2020 match America’s spending as a share of gdp, total ____ would reach $1.1trn. Last year nearly a third of the ____-____ business deals that came to the attention of European officials received detailed ____. Countries with the raw materials needed to make batteries are ____ export controls. Indonesia has ____ nickel exports; Argentina, Bolivia and Chile may soon ____, opec-style, on the ____ of their lithium mines. Economic conflict with China looks increasingly ____. As China became more deeply ____ into the global economy at the turn of this century, many in the West predicted that it would become more democratic. The death of that hope—combined with the migration of a million manufacturing jobs to Chinese factories—caused America to ____ ____ of love with globalisation. Today Mr Biden’s administration ____ about the danger of depending on China for batteries the way Europe ____ on Russia for gas before the invasion of Ukraine. Democrats and Republicans ____ worry that the loss of America’s lead in advanced chipmaking to Taiwan will ____ its ability to develop artificial intelligence—on which, they predict, armies of the future will rely to plan strategy and guide ____. Some simply want to stop China becoming too rich—as if ____ 1.4bn people were either moral or likely to ____ peace. Others, more wisely, focus on increasing America’s economic ____ and maintaining its military edge. A reindustrialisation of the heartland, they argue, will ____ support for market capitalism. In the ____, as the global hegemon, America can weather other countries’ complaints. This thinking is ____. If zero-sum policies were seen as a success, abandoning them would only become harder. In reality, even if they do remake American industry, their overall effect is more likely to cause harm by ____ global security, holding back growth and raising the cost of the green transition. Today its share of ____ has fallen to 25% and America needs friends more than ever. Its ban on exports to China’s chipmakers will work only if the Dutch firm asml and Japan’s Tokyo Electron also refuse to supply them with equipment. Battery supply chains will ____ be more secure if the ____ world operates as one bloc. Yet America’s protectionism is ____ allies in Europe and Asia. Integration and differentiation America must also ____ emerging powers. By 2050 India and Indonesia will be the world’s third- and fourth-largest economies, projects Goldman Sachs, a bank. Both are democracies but not close friends of America. By 2075 Nigeria and Pakistan will have gained economic ____, too. If America demands that other countries ____ ____ China without offering sufficient ____ to its own markets then it will be ____ by rising powers. A final worry is that the more economic conflict ____, the harder it becomes to solve problems that demand global ____. Despite ____ to secure green technology, countries are ____ ____ how to help the poor world decarbonise. It is proving hard to rescue countries in debt ____, such as Sri Lanka, because of ____ by China, a big creditor. If countries cannot co-operate to ____ some problems, these will become impossible to fix and the world will suffer ____. Nobody expects America to go back to the 1990s. It is right to seek to ____ its military ____-____ and to avoid a dangerous dependence on China for crucial economic ____. Yet this makes other forms of global integration all the more essential. It should seek the deepest co-operation between countries that is possible, given their ____ values. Today this probably requires a number of ____ forums and ad ____ deals. America should, for instance, join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, an Asian trade pact based on an earlier deal it helped write but then ____. Saving globalisation may seem impossible, given the protectionist ____ in American politics. But Congress’s aid to Ukraine shows that voters are not ____. Surveys suggest the popularity of free trade is ____. There are signs that the Biden administration is responding to allies’ ____ about its subsidies. Yet ____ the global order will require bolder American leadership that once again ____ the false promise of zero-sum thinking. There is still time for that to happen before the system ____ completely, damaging countless livelihoods and ____ the causes of liberal democracy and market capitalism. The task is enormous and ____; it could hardly be more important. The clock is ticking. ■

The destructive new logic that threatens globalisation

Tisk
Vložit

Výsledková tabule/Žebříček

Vizuální styl

Možnosti

Přepnout šablonu

Obnovit automatické uložení: ?