Deterrence theory justifies punishment by whether it stops future crime., Deterrence theory assumes offenders act rationally, weighing up risks before offending., The three key deterrence variables are certainty, severity, and celerity (speed)., South Africa introduced mandatory minimum sentences in 1997 for crimes like murder and armed robbery., The US death penalty is considered the most severe punishment possible., In 2018, US death penalty states had a higher murder rate (5.37 per 100,000) than non-death penalty states (4.17)., Oliphant (2022) found that US states which paused the death penalty saw no rise in murders., Iran recorded at least 11 public hangings in 2025 — almost 3 times the number from the year before., Afghanistan saw at least 37 public floggings across 10 provinces in a single week in early 2026., Public punishment raises the question of whether it deters crime, or simply displays state power., "Correlation isn't causation" — death penalty states may have higher murder rates due to other factors like poverty or gun ownership, not the death penalty itself., Even accounting for other factors, murder rates in death penalty states haven't fallen — suggesting severity alone can't override deeper causes of crime., Nagin (2013) found that certainty of being caught deters crime more effectively than how harsh the punishment is., Nagin's findings support Beccaria's classical deterrence theory, which is over 250 years old., In the UK, 55% of offenders given a short prison sentence go on to reoffend., In the UK, only 24% of offenders given a Suspended Sentence Order go on to reoffend., The UK doubled maximum sentences for assaulting NHS staff, but assaults on staff have continued to rise., Evidence suggests policymakers may be focusing on the wrong deterrence variable, prioritising a "tough" image over what actually works.

Deterrence AH

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