HIT , Occurrence of at least one observation of severe weather/flash flood conditions anywhere in the forecast area, any time during the forecast valid time, FALSE ALARM, Is recorded when severe weather/flash flood is forecast, but there is no severe weather/flash flood observed anywhere in the for which the forecast is valid during the valid period, MISSED EVENT, is recorded when severe weather/flash flood is reported outside the area/or the time period for which the warning is valid, or whenever severe weather/flash flood is reported and no warning is issued, CORRECT NEGATIVE, is recorded for each day and each fixed forecast region for which no warning is issued and no severe weather/flash flood is reported, VERIFICATION SCORES, can be computed from contingency tables, along with their characteristics, strengths and weaknesses, HIT RATE/PROBABILITY OF DETECTION, has range from 0 to 1 with 1 representing a perfect forecast. As it uses only the observed events and missed events, it is only sensitive to missed events and not false alarms., FALSE ALARM RATIO, is the ratio of the total false alarms to the total events forecast. Its range from 0 to 1 and a perfect score is 0. It is not sensitive to missed events., FREQUENCY BIAS/BIAS, uses only the marginals sums of the contingency table, and is not true verification measure. The value of 1 represents the best scores. Values higher than one indicate overforecasting (too frequently) and values less than one indicate under forecasting (not frequent enough), THREAT SCORE/CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX, is frequently used as a standard verification measure. It has a range from 0 to 1 with a value of 1 indicating a perfect score. It is more complete than hit rate and false alarm ratio because it is sensitive to both missed and false alarms., FALSE ALARM RATE, Fraction of observed non-events that are false alarms. The best score is 0. .

VERIFICATION SCORES

by
Print
Embed

Leaderboard

Visual style

Options

Switch template

)
Continue editing: ?