HIT  - Occurrence of at least one observation of severe weather/flash flood conditions anywhere in the forecast area, any time during the forecast valid time, FALSE ALARM - Is recorded when severe weather/flash flood is forecast, but there is no severe weather/flash flood observed anywhere in the for which the forecast is valid during the valid period, MISSED EVENT - is recorded when severe weather/flash flood is reported outside the area/or the time period for which the warning is valid, or whenever severe weather/flash flood is reported and no warning is issued, CORRECT NEGATIVE - is recorded for each day and each fixed forecast region for which no warning is issued and no severe weather/flash flood is reported, VERIFICATION SCORES - can be computed from contingency tables, along with their characteristics, strengths and weaknesses, HIT RATE/PROBABILITY OF DETECTION - has range from 0 to 1 with 1 representing a perfect forecast. As it uses only the observed events and missed events, it is only sensitive to missed events and not false alarms., FALSE ALARM RATIO - is the ratio of the total false alarms to the total events forecast. Its range from 0 to 1 and a perfect score is 0. It is not sensitive to missed events., FREQUENCY BIAS/BIAS - uses only the marginals sums of the contingency table, and is not true verification measure. The value of 1 represents the best scores. Values higher than one indicate overforecasting (too frequently) and values less than one indicate under forecasting (not frequent enough), THREAT SCORE/CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX - is frequently used as a standard verification measure. It has a range from 0 to 1 with a value of 1 indicating a perfect score. It is more complete than hit rate and false alarm ratio because it is sensitive to both missed and false alarms., FALSE ALARM RATE - Fraction of observed non-events that are false alarms. The best score is 0. ,

VERIFICATION SCORES

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